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How Not to Be Wrong

the Power of Mathematical Thinking
ksoles
Aug 31, 2014ksoles rated this title 3.5 out of 5 stars
3.5 Stars... University of Wisconsin professor and veritable numbers genius, Jordan Ellenberg, asserts that math “is like an atomic-powered prosthesis that you attach to your common sense, vastly multiplying its reach and strength.” We can’t all be mathematicians he writes, but we certainly ought to try. Ellenberg's (sometimes too) demanding but thought-provoking book demonstrates how to help our brains use mathematical principles as a guide to accurate thinking about the world. "How Not to Be Wrong" contains five sections, each featuring a math concept that can apply to real life: linearity, inference, expectation, regression, and existence. In linearity, Ellenberg counters our instinctive belief that life moves in straight lines. Will raising tax rates lead to higher or lower tax revenues? It depends. Inference teases out unexpected insights: during the controversial 2009 Iranian election, why did the number seven show up twice as often as would be expected in a fair vote? Ellenberg also shows that a knack for asking the right questions can avoid mistakes; it is all too easy to be arithmetically correct but mathematically wrong. He warns that many scientific research studies may prove worthless because of the method used to calculate the reliability of the results. He explains why red-hot hitters inevitably cool off and why hugely successful businesses always lose their edge over time. A challenging but welcome companion to anyone interested in the art of numbers.